Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
